PhD. Elena PELINESCU
Institut for Economic Forecasting – NIER, Romanian Academy
Abstract:
The paper analyzes the evolution of the exchange rate in Romania during
the financial crisis in order to offer some information regarding how the exchange
rates react in the presence of some socks. We used a Vector autoregressive
technics and impulse function and the conclusion is that in the case of It is
observed that an unexpected shock in the interbank operations and aggregate
supply leads to a slight increase of 0.2% in the exchange rate leu / euro and a
shock in the foreign exchange market trading volume may lead to a negative shock
in the exchange rate leu / euro, with a continuing influence of 6 months before
returning to the previous situation before the shock. The exchange rate channel is
an important tool in taking shocks in national and international economy and the
loss of this channel by fixing the exchange rate of the European currency would
make it difficult to accept such shocks to the labor market and goods market.
Keywords: exchange rate, vector autoregressive, financial crises.
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