重要事項 Import Notes

重要事項 Import Notes
修習國際金融專題學生,
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2011-10-17

The dancing of the real exchange rate of US dollar and the US real trade balance

原文連結至

Sources:

Applied Economics Letters; Dec96, Vol. 3 Issue 12, p807, 2p, 2 Charts

Summary :


1. Basic Theory


Real exchange Rates


2. Research Method


Cointegration methodology


Unit roots


Augmented Dickey-Fuller( ADF)


3. Required Data


Quarterly data on US real trade balance and trade-weighted real exchange rate of US dollar from 1973: 2 through 1992: 2


4. Conclusion


The unit root test shows that US real trade balance and the trade-weighted US real exchange rate are individually non-stationary in levels at 5% level of significance. The ADF test affirms that the US real trade balance and the tradeweighted real exchange rate do not depict any long-run association during the sample period. In other words, these two variables are independent of each other under the flexible exchange rate system.


5. Difficulties and Problem


The paper is written in specialized English, so I should search for it, and read it for several times to understand it. The paper also using a lot of references articles which will make me feel confused.


6. References


L. S. Copeland, "Exchange Rates and International Finance," 5th ed.,Workingham: Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 2008.
W. Enders, "Applied Econometric Time Series," 3nd ed., New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 2010
楊奕農,時間序列分析,2009年08月10日，台北： 雙葉書廊有限公司

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== Posted on 2009.10.05 ==
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